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30 März No goal to go forNo goal to go for these days...quite hollow inside...
Its' already summer. The spring just slides away in a couple days. Any spring comes? Yes, it was, before you can completely aware. Sucks the weather! But what else to do? Sleep? I don't like it very well, waste of time. I basically get up one hour earlier than before, too hot to sleep late in bed. Day's getting longer, and a noon nap would be perfect for bringing back energy. But I never get napped for the last few days... Just watch TV shows most of the time. Back from classes, check mails and concerns about the stock market. I feel like I am better at investment than doing IT ^_^
Things' getting changed. My schedule has been moved forward. Almost set that I will be on board at the starting of July. Not only 'cause the boss wants me but also I don't wanna miss the chance to visit other STEPs in the States. Good opportunity to be abroad which I have never made before, hoho~ Kobol's working for the opportunity to get transferred to DTT London. For him, for any other rookies, it's unprecedented, and pretty wild, hehe~ I wish I can get transferred to Headquater in Cleveland too :) but y'know, that would N~EV~ER gonna happen! Work hard and play hard is some life far away from me. Good luck to Abby, Hannah and other little consultants:)~~ What I am gonna do, is get down to ground, work as extremely hard as requested and make some further goals that are acheivable.
But what to fight for? As told, a man is becoming a real man once he finds sth. in his life he would finally fight for, anything, an ideal girl, a dream job or school, a big fortune...I don't know what's mine now... 26 März 论确定性及巴菲特投资理论精髓论确定性及巴菲特投资理论精髓
文章摘选自:laoba1的BLOG
一.论确定性
世界充满了不确定性,唯一不变的就是永远在变。但是事物运动过程中必然性有偶然性,偶然性中也包含了必然性。我们不可能绝对地确定事件变化过程的每一个细节,却可以在偶然性中寻找发生概率最高的必然性事件。自然规律使事物运动的一些结果是可以确定的。股票投资就是对一些大概率事件进行判断,并坚定不移地以向高确定性结果迈进,而忽略期间不可预测的细节。
若一个人从城市的一个地点到另一个地点,可以走路、骑车,也可以坐公共汽车,时间可以是早上、下午,也可以是晚上,可以走不同的路线。我们不知道路程中的大部分细节,但能到达目的地这一点几乎是确定无疑的,除非发生交通事故或者突然被袭击身亡这种低概率事件。相似地,股票市场总体来看是杂乱无章的,个股短期的走势也是完全不确定的。不可能预测股票的短期价格走势,我们却能通过一些基本的信息,判断长期的大概率事件,然后等待最终结果的出现。
确定性对于股票投资是最好的安全边际。2005年底茅台价格约为24元(向前复权后),基于茅台产能的持续扩张、稳步的提价和火爆销售市场,很容易计算出未来五年茅台的业绩将达到3-5元以上,预期市盈率只有5-8倍,那么这时候买入持有五年,显然可以获得丰厚的收益,这一点是几乎可以说是确定的。而期间股价何时到50元,何时到100元已经不重要了。我们甚至可以把茅台比喻成为年利率为30%以上的银行存款,只是利息发放的时间暂时还没有确定而已。
周期性和科技股票由于产业特性使它们无论是股票价格还是基本面都充满了不确定性,希望预测它们的未来,无疑是徒劳无功。即使是中集集团、振华港机这些具有巨大竞争优势的企业,也会由于行业的整体衰退而存在着较大的不确定性。
如果存在确定性高且能获得超额收益的投资对象,为什么我们还要冒险选择那些难以预测未来的周期性或者科技股票呢?
二.巴菲特投资理论精髓
1.企业原则
巴菲特说:“我们在投资的时候,要将我们自己看成是企业分析家,而不是市场分析师或经济分析师,更不是有价证券分析师,所以他将注意力集中在尽可能地收集他有意收购之企业的相关资料”主要分为: (1)该企业是否简单以于了解 (2)该企业过去的经营状况是否稳定 (3)该企业长期发展的远景是否被看好 2.经营原则 在考虑收购企业的时候,巴菲特非常重视管理层的品质。条件当然是诚实而且干炼明确的说,他考虑的主要因素有 (1)管理阶层是否理性 (2)整个管理阶层对股东是否坦白 (3)管理阶层是否能够对抗“法人机构盲从的行为” 3.财务原则 (1)注重权益回报而不是每股收益 (2)计算“股东收益” (3)寻求高毛利率的公司 (公司每保留1每元都要确保创汇1美元市值) 4.市场原则 股市决定股价,分析师依各阶段的特性,以市场价格为比较基准,重新评估公司股票的价值,并以此决定是否买卖及持有股票。,总而言之,理性的投资具有两个要素: (1)企业的实质价值如何 (2)是否可以在企业的股价远低于其实质价值时,买进该企业的股票?
大致可概括为5项投资逻辑、12项投资要点、8项选股标准和2项投资方式。 5项投资逻辑:
22 März 爱情转移徘徊过多少橱窗住过多少旅馆
才会觉得分离也并不冤枉 感情是用来浏览还是用来珍藏 好让日子天天都过得难忘 熬过了多久患难湿了多长眼眶 才能知道伤感是爱的遗产 流浪几张双人床换过几次信仰 才让戒指义无返顾的交换 把一个人的温暖转移到另一个的胸膛 让上次犯的错反省出梦想 每个人都是这样享受过提心吊胆 才拒绝做爱情待罪的羔羊 回忆是捉不到的月光握紧就变黑暗 等虚假的背影消失于晴朗 阳光在身上流转等所有业障被原谅 爱情不停站想开往地老天荒 需要多勇敢 烛光照亮了晚餐照不出个答案 恋爱不是温馨的请客吃饭 床单上铺满花瓣拥抱让它成长 太拥挤就开到了别的土壤 感情需要人接班接近换来期望 期望带来失望的恶性循环 短暂的总是浪漫漫长总会不满 烧完美好青春换一个老伴 * 你不要失望荡气回肠是为了
最美的平凡 * ——“我的要求也不高啊,我只想着一个普通的正常的女人,可以跟我平静地生活在一起...”
——“你试着去了解过她们么?真正欣赏他们么?……爱一个人,就得爱她的全部” 21 März 炒股16天反省记从今年今月初算起,炒股的时间超过半个月了。一方面由于去年牛市没赶上好好关注,另一方面对父母的盲目投资甚为担心。所以决定把本少爷剩余若干的大学时间好不吝啬的分一些出来关注中国股市行情。从星座运势来看,上半年巨蟹座做任何投资都是不太赚钱的,只有从下半年看是运势回转。Anyway, 我身上一分闲钱没有,只能一边盯住新浪股市为家里提供必要的投资信息,一边呢开了个账户做模拟的投资。作为新手,有必要对自己的投资理性进行不断的质疑,对投资行为进行反复反省,以获得真知。特此总结如下:
1. 虽然自己的账户赚“钱”了,家里的账户也赚钱了(虽然赚得很少),说明投资是获利的。但是我们应该清楚地意识到,目前整个股市都是牛市,现在入市,想不赚钱都难,并不是自己的投资决策都作对了。
2. 从自身投资的资产结构来看,收益率最高的股票往往是持有股数最少的。也就是说,没有把资金砸在最赚钱的个股上。其实,夏新电子前段时间还是有跌很低的,只是信心不足没有及时补仓做大。要不然现在资本会更大:) 以后买入股票的时候要学会判断哪只个股的潜能更大。
3. 建仓和平仓的时机还是把握不好。一汽轿车买入立即连跌了几天;由于需要资金去投资另一只股票,选择了低于购买价抛售然后资金转移到北辰实业。结果北辰这两天表现也不强劲,相反一汽轿车连续实现了3~4%上涨。大亏小赚,损失了一笔。希望北辰实业能够像上半月一样飙升吧,这样才能补偿回来,祈祷 阿门~~ 19 März 检讨在香港的时候学过写business plan, 但从来没玩过学校的创赛,总觉得没意思,学术性太强,脱离实际。Anyway, 这总算是一个通往Capital Ventor的桥梁,是很有用的negotiation tool. 所以,值得尝试一下,说不定对以后创业会有帮助~
另外,一直以自己不是sales的料为由经常避免跟人negotiate on price, 现在发现这个skill太重要了,需要好好改进的。
余下的时间,我想就是反复的检讨、改进了。有机会,真想再出去交流见识更多的牛人。The best people make you excellent! 15 März The Apprentice Basic biz principles are everywhere in our daily life.
Looking at the people rushing in The Apprentice show for their American Dream, just like feeling traveling in the jungle myself. NYC is undeniablly a jungle of business, making peole excited to paradise or upset to the hell. "Who's gonna succeed, who's gonna fail, who's gonna be the apprentice"-- the voice of Donald Trump is bomb alike in everybody's heart. I need that passion you know, which can help you survive in the business world. Watching the participants making one simple mistake after another, I feel like it's a 15 straight-week free MBA speed-up classes in HBS. One major purpose of case study is to avoid the same mistake from happening again in your biz. It's funny but ture that we all go against the basic business principles time and time again without realizing it.
It's time to stand up and do someting big! You'll never experience the dream if you don't dare to dream! Meanwhile, make as few mistake as you could! Believe in a great team formed up by the best people which could be huge more productive than one man with both hands.
I love the show. But the point is, it might be the most effective way for me to learn things--visually from others --No wander a lot of friends complaints that I have "stole" their qualifications:) Stay with the brilliant ones! 13 März 故地重游 故地重游,却未见故人。小F,Amy,Elsie, 同房过的阿熙,一起游玩的阿Ka,一起做过功课的阿俊,一个都没联系上。
于是没有了太多物是人非的感慨。岁月如流,而我也是,在这个大都市总是感觉自己是一个匆匆过客。停留那么一刻,也尽是美好。两天的行程很是紧张,也只能有晚上有空欣赏夜景,特别是迷人的维港——遗憾,有雾,绚丽的灯光在尘埃变得发散,变得朦胧,没法在感光的一瞬在屏幕上留下那丝灿烂。还好,人是用记忆来凝固东西的;相机,只能是人产生的一种不必要的依赖。
以前,对香港的交际氛围不是很喜欢,每个人似乎都对你很热情,但是真正能交到朋友的很少。其实,我误会了很多party, tea break存在的价值。Networking is building your network for benefit in the future. And if you can't mine a gold from this temp relationship, having fun is also valuable. 我开始喜欢这种交际。未必你会从中得到友谊,但是可能是一个开始,也可能从某个人身上看到听到或感受到一点不同的价值观,或者是一个建议,都可能会是一项很大的受益。这两天玩得很开心,不仅是因为有很多的浙大学弟学妹会缠着你说点实习啊找工作的经验,可以见到很多友善的年轻的面孔,还因为可以很更多不同background的陌生朋友们communicate, 谈论各自熟悉的生活、工作或学习。除了玩得开心之外,别人对你的personal skills, language abilities, personality的赞赏,是获得别人尊重的途径。I really like that!
时间总是短暂的,比如,苦等我一晚上的小F,还有第一天生日的Amy. Hope to see you guys around in HZ/SH! 当然也要感谢我们的team,是我们一起努力才赢来这次机会。I dare not say we are 100% the best team, but I've already made sure that we've done to the maximum. Though we lost some, but we gain a lot more. Thank you guys! 08 März Feeling before setting offPacking stuff, while listening to Westlife's old songs
Some left for a wild music dream while some just gone
I was a huge fan of them when it took five
Now things are getting changed a lot as the world goes on roll
I am not interested in other boy bands any more
From Beattles to BSB, then Westlife
Whose songs will be alive in my memory for ever long
and will be sang as long as having friends aside
Who'd also appreciate the spirit of youth as I got the mic :)
We all used to be young, and still to be younger as long as keeping dreams in mind
no matter how the world's changed and life's distorted
I am setting out for trip tomorrow, packing stuff with complex mood
But listening to yesterday's music makes me moved
Baggage will be the friend with me as well as you do 06 März 新东方兼职的事黄了 标题再清楚不过了。 不是很爽。由于我上班时间在8月,培训完了也只能教7月的课,新东方才没那么傻呢!
说起来也真是的,从开学一直现在都没音讯,昨天发个email过去今天中午马上就打电话过来了。HR先打听我的口气,一听说我决定去上海工作,而且8月份上班,就马上诸多托辞,说大家都不划算云云,一点诚意都没有。
算了,再找找其他的实习机会吧。
看我每天更新这么勤,就知道我有多空了。MS每天就吃吃饭睡睡觉看看股票。Alone days, easily go by. 05 März [ABC]兄弟姐妹◎第一季◎美剧热播【推荐】中文名称:兄弟姐妹 第一季
英文名称:Brothers & Sisters Season 1 发行时间:2006年09月24日 演员:Rachel Griffiths 饰 Sarah Whedon Patricia Wettig 饰 Holly Harper Matthew Rhys 饰 Kevin Walker John Pyper-Ferguson 饰 Joe Whedon Sarah Jane Morris 饰 Julia Walker Ron Rifkin 饰 Saul Holden Calista Flockhart 饰 Kitty Walker Sally Field 饰 Nora Holden Dave Annable 饰 Justin Walker Balthazar Getty 饰 Thomas Walker 地区:美国 语言:英语 简介: ![]() 【剧情简介】: Brothers & Sisters是一部由Ken Olin和Jon Robin担任制片,以一个居住在加利福尼亚州普通美国家庭Walker家为背景的一部电视剧。家里的孩子Sarah Whedon,Tommy Walker,Kevin Walker,Justin Walker还有Kitty Walker尽力去做以达到父母的期望。家庭成员还包括他们的母亲Nora Holden,Nora的兄弟Saul Holden,Sarah的丈夫Joe Whedon,Tommy的妻子Julia Walker,还有一位神秘女子Holly Harper。本片讲述了Walker一家整天勾心斗角的生活。 Brothers & Sisters is a drama from executive producers Ken Olin and Jon Robin Baitz. The LA-based Walker family is an ordinary American family. The adult siblings -- Sarah Whedon, Tommy Walker, Kevin Walker, Justin Walker, and Kitty Walker -- try to live up to their parents' expectations. Alongside their mother Nora Holden, Nora's brother Saul Holden, Sarah's huSBand Joe Whedon, Tommy's wife Julia Walker and mysterious Holly Harper, the Walkers struggle through their everyday lives. 我个人觉得,每次Walker一家聚在一起的时候,不仅是多名巨星飙现精湛演技的时候,而且在一步步多方面地呈现出美国的家庭价值观。Everyone involved in the family has his/her personal life, but together, they build up a family for which everyone has responsibility and makes a warm shelter to live. 03 März LIFE VALUE Recently, everytime I lied down facing the befalling darkness after light's out at 23:00 in this damn campus, there were always voices in my mind which sound like questioning the value of my life. Sounds ridiculous to the God, right? As I am there at the threshold of my career with a job --which is of coz nice and decent in people's eyes--, I am not feeling scared or afraid, but sort of upset. Not a optimistic person I have always been, I just feel the reality is never this far from dream, and getting farther. I should learn to be tough and strong. Originally, yes I am. I just need some catalyzers--not drugs btw :) --to keep me energetic and enthusiastic about everything around. I need those kind of friends to remind me I am still with a young hard to acheive what I want and fight for it. What a shit the life will be if I live without someone conceiving of the same dream beside. No doubt I know what I am gonna pursue in my life as life value after knowing myself for 22 years and a half. It's to BE DISTINGUISHED! I have done a lot to make me feel a sense of accomplishment since I was a kid--getting into famous local middle school and then prestigious university in the region/country and acquiring an opportunity to work in an American Corporation. But it's only the way, the process, not what I want to pursue but some things I must do to keep me in the "game". So as the MBA in top B-school. I know I should work hard and study hard for high score in GMAT to keep me from knocking out of the application of MBA, however, MBA is not where life value stand, the challenge is. I seems to have my way out after tossing for nights:)
Then I think about how to start and where to start. I feel quite alone at this season, why? I feel out of support. I feel most people in this campus in this class are satisfied with their future jobs or life. I understand. But I can see it's not the end even though it's damn right that we are standing at the tail of the college life. Lifes' gonna go on and there will be scores of years for us to know about ourselves and the rest of the world. I feel very excited, but alone. I don't want to live in a small world in a small me. I need energy guys & gals to help me hold the dream, I desire to get involved with someone who can pursue the same goal. Then, life will be perfect.
Time flies for us to grow up. 02 März 挑战极限!从现在开始近期关于男人要挑战极限云云,实在和david兄的博客上所写的男人必作十件事第一件是巧合的。为什么会想到挑战极限呢?原因有三:
第一:最近看到很多出国的“飞友”,“奋青”拿到牛offer,心情很是感慨……曾经想决定就这样在国内混日子了,突然很有激情和冲动,想去实现MBA的梦。虽然我错过了master,MBA似乎更是遥不可及,但心里有股气,很想去挑战不可能的极限。我不会去care将来会不会有钱,不会care将来是不是到成家的年龄,将来是不是要很多钱在国内买车买房……只要不以牺牲家庭为代价,我都会去尝试。Dream is built for someone with strong will and faith to accomplish. If you never take the step forward, you will gain nothing
第二:Kobol谈到去西藏的时候,我也听到了一种声音。有些事情现在不去做,将来就更不可能去做。虽然Nothing is impossible写在高中的很多状元的座右铭中(被我们戏称为状元都跟adidas签了约似的),有些top 10 B-School仍有35+岁的学生,但是读MBA,还是要趁年轻。4年为限吧。23岁毕业+4年工作in 500=27岁,那时还能够非常proactive地去争取去努力。先把G/T考好,努力工作,争取2年promote一次,多做海外项目,还是非常有希望申请到top 10 B-school的。如果不行,那就不行了,也没什么遗憾的了。收拾精力去做其他
第三:IT毕竟不是自己想走的路,转入管理需要经验,也需要更高的学历。MBA是重择职业的方向盘,可以把方向再拨一次,让自己做更喜欢更感兴趣的工作。MBA不是目的不是终点,只是一个转折,一个process。不管做consulting & strategy也好,做general managemt.也好,都是很好的一个前期历练。 |
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